Before I get all wound up here, I'd like to start with a not insignificant disclaimer. I do not support Joan Buchanan. In fact, I view her as being dangerously close to a clone of Ellen Tauscher, with her much-vaunted "follow-through" and "pragmatism" really just being code for a big-business background, corporate outlook, and a willingness to concede points before she even arrives at the table. But that being said, she is running the best and smartest campaign I've seen in a long time, and I'm afraid that she's leaving her competition in CA-10 in the dust.
Much has been made of the fact that Buchanan's fundraising was anemic for the second quarter and that she's only in the game because she lent her campaign $250,000 (which she can easily afford). But I'd argue that her approach to financing her campaign was nothing short of genius. If you've ever been to a campaign training seminar, the first rule you may have heard is this: "Campaigns have three finite resources: Volunteers, money, and time. How you manage these three resources will be the difference between winning and losing."
Well, by taking the issue of money off the table in one fell swoop, Buchanan freed up herself and her campaign to focus on the other two resources.
Buchanan had an army of volunteers who worked for her just a few short months ago, and many of them are enthusiastically on board for this run as well. Added to that is a phalanx of paid canvassers (her FEC report showed that she was paying 30 staffers as of June 30). So it shouldn't really come as that much of a surprise that Buchanan's campaign had knocked on 20,000 doors by July 1.
But what is stunning is that the Buchanan campaign has continued to ramp up its canvassing program. Last week, they blew past the milestone of 55,000 doors knocked. On the Saturday before last, with temperatures hovering over 100, Buchanan had 54 canvassers out going door to door.
Well, the DNC did some research in advance of the 2008 presidential campaign, and their study showed that the contact required to garner one vote for your cause/candidate requires the following:
389 mailers
460 phone calls
14 doors knocked
So the robocalls, sign wars, and all the intensive phone banking that those other campaigns have been engaged in are pretty much ineffectual compared to good old-fashioned door knocking.
And while it should go without saying, the very most impressive facet of the Buchanan campaign's canvassing operation may be that they are so organized and have such good data management that they actually know how many doorsteps they've visited.
So Buchanan seems to have both money and volunteers nailed down. Which brings us to the third factor: Time. With California in the midst of a financial melt-down, all three candidates have had to carve out time for their official duties, fundraising, and campaigning. As I mentioned previously, by not stressing over fundraising, Buchanan has given herself more time to focus on the race. And she's done a good job there, as well. Instead of dragging a giant bear and a coterie of fanboys to the same tired Democratic club events with the same hundred people over and over and over again, she's been branching out and talking to members of the larger community and holding townhall events with an emphasis on helping local small businesses.
And now, with absentee ballots due to be sent out in just one week, I'd look for Buchanan to step up both her canvassing and her direct mail program. She's already sent out one mail piece, copied here for your viewing pleasure, and it's pretty impressive.
While Garamendi and DeSaulnier have been squaring off against each other, Joan Buchanan has run an incredibly disciplined and somewhat under the radar type of campaign, one that has been well-planned, well-organized, and well-executed. I'm just curious to see at what point Garamendi and DeSaulnier will realize the threat she poses and turn their guns on her.
