Mon Aug 10, 2009 at 01:54:15 AM PDT
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Well, there's new polling data in the CA-10 race that's been released by the John Garamendi campaign. Predictably, Garamendi's polling shows him with a double-digit lead (just barely). Here's the quick summary:
| Candidate | Initial | After Positive Bio |
|---|
| John Garamendi | 31% | 36% | | Mark DeSaulnier | 21% | 22% | | Joan Buchanan | 17% | 20% | | Anthony Woods | 9% | 9% | | David Harmer (R) | 5% | 7% | | Adriel Hampton | 1% | 0% | | Undecided | 17% | 8% |
Phone survey of 400 likely voters, Democratic and DTS , conducted 8/2-8/4, MoE 4.9%
The Garamendi campaign hasn't made the crosstabs public, so this poll raises almost as many questions as it answers. But I just can't shake this feeling of déjà vu when I look at these numbers. They make me think of another recent primary race: the Virginia governor's race last June. Of course, I could be totally wrong about this, but the similarities are striking.
You've got the late entry with big name recognition, lots of fundraising ability, and an endorsement from former President Bill Clinton in his back pocket -- that would be Terry McAuliffe. Then you've got the guy who started off as the presumed front-runner (before McAuliffe jumped in), Brian Moran. And you've got Creigh Deeds, who was bringing up the rear, running as a moderate. Three weeks out from election day, a DailyKos/Research 2000 tracking poll showed the following results:
| May 18-20, 2009 | |
|---|
| Terry McAuliffe | 36% | | Brian Moran | 22% | | Creigh Deeds | 13% | | Undecided | 29% |
But a mere three weeks later, after Moran launched a series of negative attacks on McAuliffe which ended up bloodying both McAuliffe and Moran, Deeds swept to victory.
| June 9, 2009 Election Results | |
|---|
| Creigh Deeds | 49.76% | | Terry McAuliffe | 26.43% | | Brian Moran | 23.79% |
All of which is a kind of fancy way of saying, "Who knows?"
For the DeSaulnier campaign's response, flip it... |
| babaloo :: New Polling in CA-10 |
Mark DeSaulnier's campaign fired back with criticism of the Garamendi poll, calling its methodology into question. Alex Evans of EMC Research provided the DeSaulnier response to the Garamendi poll memo:
Once again the Garamendi spin machine is in full swing, but let's stop to take a look at what his polling memo actually says.
The poll was done only among Democratic and Decline to State voters.
Problem: the special election on September 1 is a "blanket primary." All voters of all parties and non-parties are eligible to vote and will vote in this election, not just Democrats and DTS. By not interviewing Republicans and voters from other parties, the Garamendi campaign has ignored 1/3 of the electorate. The structure of the poll is fundamentally flawed to predict how the September 1st electorate will actually vote.
The poll conspicuously fails to mention any movement from Garamendi's other poll.
Problem: Garamendi's previous poll, conducted by another polling firm, JMM Research, in March is not referenced anywhere in the poll memo. From the little we can tell from this polling memo and what was released from the March poll conducted by the other pollster, there has been no movement for Garamendi with the electorate. However, it does appear that our feeling that DeSaulnier has momentum is confirmed. DeSaulnier is now within striking distance with Democratic and DTS voters. In addition, Garamendi's "Proven Democrat" campaign will likely turn off the 1/3 of the voters that were not polled in this survey, leaving them available to DeSaulnier who has held non-partisan office and run non-partisan campaigns for 20 years in this district.
The poll asked 11 times more positive questions about Garamendi than the other candidates.
Problem: Since our campaign consultant was one of the CD 10 voters that was polled, we actually know the structure of the poll and the questions asked (see below for a brief description of the questions asked on the poll.) In fact, there were 11 positive statements made about Garamendi in the poll and one for each of the other candidates. In that kind of lopsided survey, it should in fact be of great concern to the Garamendi campaign that they only have 31% support from the people surveyed. It is, unfortunately for the Garamendi campaign, not reflective of the number of communications the voters will have received from the different candidates by election day.
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Also, from Mark D's campaign person whom the pollster called last week.
Brief description of Garamendi survey questions
Conducted Monday, August 3, 2009
- Right track/wrong track
- Most important issue
- Favorable/unfavorable
- President Obama
- California State Legislature
- Arnold Schwarzenegger
- Joan Buchanan
- Anthony Woods
- David Harmer
- Bill Clinton
- Mark DeSaulnier
- John Garamendi
- Ellen Tauscher
- First vote
- Who is your second choice?
- Positive paragraphs
- Mark DeSaulnier has spent 25 years in elected office as a mayor, county supervisor, Assemblyman, and State Senator. He has worked on health care, the economy, and protecting the environment. He is a former small business owner. In Congress he will work to make health care more affordable. He is supported by former Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher.
- John Garamendi has a proven record over 30 years. He is Chair of the Economic Development Commission, has fought for green jobs and against tuition increases. As Insurance Commissioner, he protected consumers. He is endorsed by President Bill Clinton and Al Gore.
- Joan Buchanan is a practical problem solver, a mother, and businesswoman. She was on the San Ramon Valley school board and is supported by educators and women's groups.
- David Harmer is a businessman who will reduce spending and not raise taxes. His father was a senator in southern California. Politics is not new to him. He has been involved in politics his whole life.
- Anthony Woods served two tours of duty in Iraq. He is an economic analyst and grew up in the district.
- 2nd vote
- Who is your second choice?
- Negative paragraphs - do they raise serious doubts, some doubts, little doubt, no real doubt?
- Buchanan and DeSaulnier are part of the problem in Sacramento. They are state legislators that voted for the budget which cut important programs.
- Garamendi is a career politician of 32 years who is just looking for his next job. He was running for Governor but now running for Congress.
- Garamendi is a carpetbagger. He says his front yard is in the district and his bedroom is not, but maps show that it's not in the district at all.
- 3rd vote
- Supporters of Garamendi say the following - do you find it very convincing, somewhat, a little, not at all?
- Garamendi was Pres. Clinton's top deputy at the Department of Interior. He fought big polluters and stopped nuclear waste dumping.
- Garamendi will strengthen the economy, expand research, invest in a green economy, alternative energy, and energy independence.
- Garamendi has a long record of reforming health care. He established the emergency medical response system in the state, rural health care, and designated a direct funding stream for cancer research.
- Garamendi stood up to Arnold and the right wing Republicans when they wanted to cut essential services. Some Democrats went along with cuts. John Garamendi stood up.
- As Insurance commissioner, Garamendi ran the best consumer protection agency in the country. He paid claims from the Oakland hills fire and protected seniors.
- Garamendi believes that the most important economic development tool is education. He will increase funding, oppose salary increases for university executives, and fight tuition increases.
- Even if you are voting for someone else, rate which statement is the most convincing reason to support John Garamendi.
- 3 decades of experience
- Proven Democrat who shares your values
- Will work with Pres. Obama and Congressional Democrats to solve problems
- Fight for consumers and take on insurance companies
- Last vote
- Choose which statement you agree with more:
- Critics say Garamendi doesn't live in the district and is a carpetbagger, or
- The California constitution only requires congressional candidates to be a legal resident of California.
Pretty fascinating stuff. In those polling questions, you see the shape of the negative campaigning we can expect to see in the next three weeks. Garamendi polled favorable/unfavorable for Arnold Schwarzenegger. Then he asked the two following questions:
- Buchanan and DeSaulnier are part of the problem in Sacramento. They are state legislators that voted for the budget which cut important programs.
- Garamendi stood up to Arnold and the right wing Republicans when they wanted to cut essential services. Some Democrats went along with cuts. John Garamendi stood up.
As to where Garamendi sees his own vulnerability, you just need to check these questions:
- Garamendi is a career politician of 32 years who is just looking for his next job. He was running for Governor but now running for Congress.
- Garamendi is a carpetbagger. He says his front yard is in the district and his bedroom is not, but maps show that it's not in the district at all.
The pollster even poses the issue a second time:
- Critics say Garamendi doesn't live in the district and is a carpetbagger.
So this is just my prediction; take it with a grain of salt. But I'm looking for the negative campaigning between DeSaulnier and Garamendi to start in earnest in the next week or so, and I'm guessing that the attacks will revolve around the issues identified above. And there are only two beneficiaries of that: Joan Buchanan and Anthony Woods. |
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