Watch out for the conventional wisdom; it'll bite you every time. So in the CA-10 race, the conventional wisdom is that with John Garamendi's entry into the race, he becomes the immediate frontrunner by virtue of his name recognition, his long experience, and his fundraising capacity. But what if those things have been overestimated? After all, Garamendi had all of those things when he ran for Lt. Governor in 2006. How did he do then? Well, the answer is... not too well.
The Secretary of State site doesn't break down the results of the Lt. Gov. primary by Congressional district, so we'll just have to look at the county-wide results, where Garamendi lost by anywhere from 9 to 19 points in the counties that comprise CA-10:
John Garamendi
Jackie Speier
Alameda County
30.1%
49%
Contra Costa County
37.6%
50.3%
Solano County
38.9%
48.2%
Note: I've omitted Sacramento County from the chart (the county from which Garamendi hails) because it's such a small part of the district, with only 652 registered Democrats eligible to vote in the CA-10 primary.
Now, the Draft Garamendi movement is proposing that Garamendi would be better suited to a run in CA-03 against Dan Lungren. Just for the sake of comparison, here are the primary results from 2006 for the counties that make up CA-03:
John Garamendi
Jackie Speier
Alpine County
55.7%
31.8%
Amador County
58.5%
33.8%
Calaveras County
62.7%
30.1%
Sacramento County
42.1%
47.2%
Solano County
38.9%
48.2%
All of which is a kind of long-winded way of saying that Garamendi's perceived advantage in the CA-10 race may end up amounting to what most of the conventional wisdom in politics amounts to... not much. These numbers would certainly indicate that CA-03 holds a lot more promise for Garamendi than CA-10.
There's an old saying... "Grow where you're planted." Perhaps nowhere is that adage more apt than in the current John Garamendi CA-10 vs. CA-03 controversy.
When John Garamendi kicked off his campaign for the special election in CA-10, he unveiled an introductory video laying out his reasons for running. Unfortunately for Garamendi, who actually lives in CA-03, the video served to demonstrate just exactly how out of touch he is with CA-10. Watch the video for yourself and pay special attention to how Garamendi claims to have helped the residents of CA-10, first through passing legislation 30 years ago to pave the way for windmills on the Altamont Pass (sorry, that's actually in CA-11, Jerry McNerney's district) and then through his actions as Insurance Commissioner after the Oakland Hills fire (sorry, that's actually in CA-09, Barbara Lee's district).
Then, more recently, while speaking from the podium at the CDP convention, Garamendi referred to the special event where he formally announced his candidacy, talking about his visit to the unemployment office in Fremont (sorry, that's in CA-13, Pete Stark's district).
What's become clear through all this is a) John Garamendi doesn't seem to know where CA-10, the district he wants to represent in Congress, actually is; and b) he doesn't seem very attuned to the problems and concerns of the people who live in the district.
But there's a solution. Garamendi could, and should, try running in the district where he's spent most of his life, the district where he lives, CA-03. Now, CA-03 has an honest-to-goodness bad guy Republican that needs to be sent packing, in the form of Dan Lungren. And John Garamendi seems like just the guy to do it. Indeed, there's a Draft Garamendi movement that has sprung up in the last few weeks, and the message is being pushed out via an online petition, a facebook group, and twitter. And far from being a fly-by-night idea, this movement has been gaining a lot of traction, even in far-away Washington, DC. A recent article in the National Journal featured the notion that maybe John Garamendi is running in the wrong district, and an earlier article in Roll Call (subscription), made it clear that the Draft Garamendi movement is on the DCCC's screen:
Andrew Stone, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said D.C. Democrats are aware of the movement to draft Garamendi into the 3rd district race, but would not comment further, except to say, "That district is one that we're really paying close attention to."
Now there's a new YouTube video out with none other than John Garamendi himself speaking out on the need for a strong challenger to take on Dan Lungren.
There are two interesting races shaping up to our east, one for Congress and one for the State Assembly. In California’s 3rd Congressional district, Dr. Bill Durston ran a spirited challenge against Dan Lungren last year. In a district where the latest voter registration numbers show Democrats lagging behind Republicans 36% - 42%, with 17% decline to state, Lungren won the race 59-38%.
It's probably worth pointing out that in 2004's presidential election, CA-03 voted 58-41% for Bush and, in the 2004 Senate race, 51-46% for Bill Jones over Barbara Boxer. Lungren is well-known and, to date, has not been implicated in any of the Republican scandals, so opposition to him within the district would have to arise from a general sense of dissatisfaction with his far right stances on issues like Iraq, the economy, the environment, and healthcare.
Durston spent the last several months debating whether he would try again but recently decided not to run, leaving a hole in Howard Dean’s 50-State Strategy. But just last week Jim Cook announced that he is willing to step up and mount a challenge to Lungren in 2008. Cook, a resident of Elk Grove in Sacramento County, is a former high school teacher who has spent the last 18 years working as a parole officer. While Cook has no experience as an elected, he does have campaign experience.
